Novartis: Cost of capital and value creation: The spin-off of Sandoz - Spreadsheet

This case study explores the strategic spin-off of Sandoz, the generics and biosimilars division of Novartis, scheduled for October 2023. Set in late September 2023, the narrative follows financial analyst Stephanie Black of CVA Capital Ventures as she prepares cost of capital estimates for Novartis and its divisions. Her work aims to support a major portfolio rebalance at her investment firm and to assess whether the spin-off will create shareholder value. Novartis, a Swiss-based global pharmaceutical leader, decided to spin off Sandoz to focus exclusively on high-value innovative medicines. Sandoz, on the other hand, would become an independent, publicly traded company, positioned as Europe?s largest generics pharmaceutical firm. The split is expected to improve strategic clarity and capital allocation for both entities. The case provides detailed background on Novartis and Sandoz, including their business models, markets, revenues, and strategic priorities. Novartis? innovative medicines division represents the bulk of its sales and is centered on research-driven patented treatments. Sandoz focuses on lower-margin, off-patent products, facing fierce competition but benefiting from growing global demand for affordable medications. The central technical challenge in the case is estimating the Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) for Novartis pre- and post-spin-off, and separately for Sandoz and the Innovative Medicines division. Stephanie must apply valuation techniques, particularly the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) for the cost of equity, and assess credit spreads and risk profiles for the cost of debt. Due to the lack of trading history for the separated entities, she also considers betas of comparable public companies. The spin-off raises questions about potential value creation, changes in risk profiles, and operational trade-offs. While Sandoz gains agility and market focus, it also loses the financial stability and scale of Novartis. The case challenges students to assess whether the spin-off is likely to enhance shareholder value by reducing the cost of capital and sharpening strategic execution. This case is ideal for advanced discussions on corporate finance, capital structure, valuation, and strategic management in the pharmaceutical industry. It provides rich data (financial statements, market conditions, credit spreads) and asks students to perform real-world estimations and strategic analysis.