A.H. Homes: The Next Investment

Attique Rehman, Nataliya Nadeem, Rtaab Hameed

Product #:W48496

Supplier:Ivey

Discipline:Finance, Management Science

Setting:Pakistan, 2025

Details:Case (PDF) • 7 pages • 2026-05-28

Your Price:

$9.71

Purchase this material with a free Educator Account and enjoy more benefits:

Free Educator Copy
Free Teaching Notes
Build your coursepack
Discounted academic price

On January 6, 2025, Muhammad Afzal, the founder of A.H. Homes, a Lahore-based real estate and construction company with a two-decade track record in luxury housing projects, was considering how to reinvest the Rs 100 million (about US$358,946) he had received from the highly profitable project he had just closed. Afzal was faced with three possible reinvestment avenues: reinvest in the local Lahore real estate market he knew best, enter the Dubai real estate market, or diversify into the glass manufacturing industry, an upstream material that would create vertical integration for A.H. Homes. This third path carried its own dilemma, as Afzal would need to decide whether to rely on a consulting agency to navigate an industry he largely did not understand. The scale of capital at stake demanded structure, numbers, and clarity. On a flight from Dubai to Lahore, Afzal wrestled with a decision that could redefine the company’s future trajectory: How should A.H. Homes reinvest its Rs 100 million to secure the greatest long-term return?

Learning Objectives

This case is designed for use in introductory courses relevant to decision theory: decision analysis, quantitative decision-making, and business analytics. It is suitable to be taught at the undergraduate or graduate level.

By working through this case, students will be able to do the following:

Construct multi-stage decision trees and incorporate sequential uncertainties.
Calculate expected payoffs through the expected monetary value approach to analyze and compare each investment option.
Compute the future value of a decision, accounting for return and growth.
Recognize and avoid common modelling errors such as double-counting costs or skipping joint probabilities.
Calculate the expected value of imperfect information and determine whether external advice justifies its cost.
Explore the concepts of prior probabilities and conditional probabilities to derive the posterior probabilities when using Bayes’ theorem based on imperfect forecasts.
Use Bayesian updating to revise prior probabilities based on imperfect forecasts.
Appreciate the role of structured decision analysis as a complement to intuition in high-stakes strategic decisions.

A.H. Homes: The Next Investment

Subjects:

Industries:

Geography:

Learning Objectives