The US–China Trade War: Deal or No Deal?

The US–China trade war in 2019 led to major shifts in global trade and supply chains, highlighting the recent trend in deglobalization. This case discusses the patterns of international trade and capital flows across the two countries, determinants of trade imbalances, and the role of national savings, policies, institutions, and exchange rates. The material allows for an examination of several factors, including the broader context of tech competition between China and the United States. The case raises a series of questions around the uncertainty the trade war created, the impact of tariffs on both economies, and diverging views from the two sides on who is winning. The case has been successfully taught in second-year MBA classes and executive training programs on global economies and markets.